Coronavirus Tests per Case: How many tests to find one COVID-19 case? (2020-US-EPO-631)

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Douglas Okamoto, Management Consulting Biostatistician, Data to Information to Knowledge to Wisdom

The purpose of this poster presentation is to display COVID-19 morbidity and mortality data available on-line from Our World in Data whose contributors ask the key question: “How many tests to find one COVID-19 case?”

We use SAS JMP Analyze to help answer the question. Smoothing test data from Our World in Data, yields seven-day moving average or SMA(7) total tests per thousand in five countries for which coronavirus test data are reported: Belgium, Italy, South Korea, the United Kingdom and United States.

Similarly, seven-day moving average or SMA(7) total cases per million of were derived using the Time Series Smoothing option. Coronavirus tests per case were calculated by dividing smoothed total tests by smoothed total cases and multiplying by a factor of 1,000. These ratios of smoothed tests to smoothed cases were themselves smoothed.

Additionally, Box-Jenkins ARIMA(1,1,1) time series models were fitted to smoothed total deaths per million to graphically compare smoothed case-fatality rates with smoothed tests per case ratios.

(view in My Videos)

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Speaker	Transcript
Douglas Okamoto	In our poster presentation we display COVID-19 data available from our world and data, who's database sponsors, ask the question why is data on testing important
	We use JMP version.
	To help us answer the question.
	Seven Day moving averages are calculated from January 21 to July 21
	Daily per capita COVID-19 tests and coronavirus tests in seven countries United States, Italy, Spain, Germany, Great Britain, Belgium and South Korea.
	Core by owners test per case where calculated by dividing smooth test by smooth cases and multiplying by a factor 1000
	Daily COVID-19 test data yields smoothed test data per thousand in Figure one
	Testing in LA states in blue trims upward with two tests per thousand daily on July 21st 10 times more than South Korea in red.
	Which trends downward
	The x axis is normalized the figure one, two days since moving averages number one or more tests per thousand.
	In figure two smooth coronavirus cases per million in Europe and South Korea trend downward after peaking months earlier than the US in blue, which averaged 2200 cases per month million on July 21st, with no end in sight.
	The x axis is normalized to the number of days since moving averages of 10 or more cases per million.
	Combining tabular results from figure one and figure to smooth COVID-19 test per case in Figure three shows South Korean testing in red peaks at 685 tests per case in May 38 times USP performance in lieu
	Of 22 tests per case in June.
	Since the x axis is dated figure three represents a time series.
	The reciprocal of tests for case cases protest is a measure of product to a positivity one in 22 or 4.5% of positive cases in the US compares with 0.15% positivity in South Korea.
	And 0.5 to 1.0% in Europe.
	At a March 30 who press briefing. Dr. Michael Ryan suggested a positive rate less than 10% or even better, less than 3% as a general benchmark of adequate testing.
	JMP analysis JMP analyzed was used to fit Box Jenkins time series models to smooth test per case in the US for March 13 of April 25
	predictive values from April 26 two main ninth or forecast from a fitted model and auto-regressive integrated moving average or ARIMA 111
	Model the figure for a time surge of smooth tests per case from mid March to April shows a rise in the number of us test for case not a decline as predicted during the 14 day forecast period.
	In summary, 10 or more test cases tests were performed per case to provide adequate testing in the United States COVID-19 testing in Europe and South Korea was more than adequate with hundreds of tests per case.
	Equivalent only the positive rate or number of cases protest was less than 10% in the US.
	Whereas positivity in Europe and South Korea was well under 3%
	When our poster was submitted the US totaled 4 million coronavirus cases more than your European countries and South Korea combined
	Us continues to be plagued by state by state disease outbreaks. Thank you.

d2i2k2w · ‎08-03-2020

Bubble Plot for Total Coronavirus Cases and Deaths in 10 Countries (April 21, 2020)

In our first bubble plot the Y-axis is total coronavirus cases and X-axis the number of days since cases totaled 10,000 or more. Total coronavirus cases in the US grew exponentially to 650,000 cases leaving a trail of blue bubbles.

In our second bubble plot the Y-axis is total deaths caused by COVID-19 and X-axis number of days since deaths totaled 100 or more. American deaths grew exponentially to 25,000.

Currently, COVID-19 related deaths total 155 K and coronavirus cases 4.7M, six and seven times their totals less than four months ago.

d2i2k2w · ‎08-03-2020

Bubble Plots for Coronavirus Deaths and Case Fatality Rates (April 23, 2020)

These bubble plots are animated displays of online COVID-19 coronavirus mortality data for ten countries including the US, Italy, Spain, France and Germany.

In our first bubble plot, the Y-axis is the total number of deaths caused by COVID-19 and X-axis the number of days since deaths first totaled 100. Bubbles are proportional in size to daily deaths

In our second bubble plot, the Y-axis is the case fatality rate equal to total deaths caused by COVID-19 divided by total coronavirus cases. The X-axis is the number of days since deaths first totaled 100.

Currently, the US case-fatality rate equals 155 K COVID-19 deaths divided by 4.7 M coronavirus cases or 3.3%.